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I'm running MK3 wheels without spacers. None needed on mine. I'm also not really lowered. I'm running Eibachs which only lowered the car about 1/2" (stock springs had probably sagged just a bit).
At 6.5" wide you are 1" wider than stock. The 38mm is close to stock (39mm is stock, i think). So because offset is measured from wheel centerline you gain 1/2". So basically with the wider wheel the the inside of your wheel should be about 1/2" closer to the car (if I'm right about the stock wheel's offset). If I'm right the outside of the wheel would also be 1/2" farther out. So spacers would help the inside but possibly begin to create in issue on the outside.
You should be OK with the wheels you linked to without spacers but check when you bolt them before you drive it to make sure.
Is the car lowered? If so then that is a factor too. If it's not now do you plan on lowering it? You should consider that too.
Personally I would stay with 15s if possible. Both the wheels and tires will be less expensive.
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