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I think you've got the right idea. Coolant, when it leaves, either drips on the ground or goes out the tailpipe. If you're not seeing it under the car then it's not the water pump.
The HG can be blown without the coolant showing up in the oil, especially if it's a rather small hole. I wouldn't expect a compression test to show anything since the engine is still running well but a leakdown test would prove it.
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